[AKN #25] The future of the real physical world is exciting and my newfound love of sea shanties
another krappy newsletter #25
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Greetings on the eve of Inauguration Day here in the US!
Inauguration Day is, of course, a day that we all deeply care about and always have.
I remember the first Inauguration Day I celebrated as a kid. The year was 1993. Washington was about to get turned upside down by an incredibly charismatic Southern gentleman, George H.W. Bush. We all watched the boob tube with baited breath as he showed up in his Delorean and strut down the red carpet.
Topless women and men in cowboy hats lined the streets as H.W. prepared to take on the tall task of replacing Ronald Reagan. I will never forget when H.W. got to the podium. It felt like he was looking all of us in the eye as he proclaimed “America fucks.”
Fireworks went off. Taxes were cut. Babies were made. Totally unforgettable experience.
Ok. None of that happened.
I made it up because I didn’t tune in on 1993. Nor did I tune in on 1997. Or 2001. Or 2005. Or 2009. Or 2013. Or 2017. And you know what? I won’t tune in on 2021 either. Because I don’t care about some boring ass old man beauty pageant.
Also. I did a lot last year.
I showed up to vote four times! In California, Arizona, and Georgia (twice!)
I successfully diverted attention away from the shady election results.
I let NO ONE stop the steal.
I deserve a break from all the coverage.
Unfortunately, I now realize it is naive to think that after Biden won we could go back to focusing exclusively on working instead of dealing with our feelings and paying zero attention to the federal government. Instead its looking like we are settling in for all day coverage of six different news outlets sending us push notifications about the White House dog, showing live drone coverage over the White House bathroom, and premiering a rousing 1:1 interview with the Chief of Staff about how Biden is “just different.”
Literally kill me.
You can appreciate what it means to live in a free country with a peaceful transition of power without spending an entire day getting updates about the transition of power.
But that seems to be a pretty old fashioned hot take.
Or maybe I am just grouchy from being 2 weeks down out of my 3 week elimination diet.
Next week is the reintroduction phase! Tune in for live streams of how my gastrointestinal system reacts to eggs, sugar, and grains!
On to the newsletter!
Table of Contents
1. Technological innovation finds its way to physical stuff
2. Sea Shanties
1. Technological innovation finds its way to physical stuff
I believe the 2020s are going to be an unprecedented decade of innovation in the physical world (ie: things you can touch). But I did not always think that. In fact, I had a pessimistic view of progress in non-digital technology until recently.
This pessimism was informed from two ideas:
My own experience in the world of manufacturing.
In my sliver of the technology sphere, I don’t see much innovation. We still make most physical goods in the exact same way that we made them 50 years ago. While everyone else lives in this fantasy world where factory work is being automated away every single day, I have been in these factories and can confirm that this is not true.
A compelling thought experiment that goes like this:
Look around you right now. Remove the screens (phones, computers, etc..). How can you tell we are not in 1970 except for differences in fashion?
It is surprisingly difficult to find something we can do now that they couldn’t do in 1970 in the physical world. We launched people to space in 1969. We were humming along nicely with the internal combustion engine. We were harnessing nuclear energy in crazy ways. Outside of our ability to Google what the year 1969 looks like, things largely look the same.
However, I have started to believe that this mental model for thinking through innovation over the next decade is not valid. The following pieces in particular helped me understand that there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about technology in the 2020s:
In reading these and watching other areas grow this year, I realize that we are about to see a lot of exponential technologies take off this decade. Things that we yawned at in the last decade were the precursors for the things in this decade that will make us go wow.
Below I will highlight three examples of technological progress that have really changed my mind about how far we have come since 1970.
1. The mRNA COVID vaccine
The vaccine was crazy. I have written about it a lot already so I won’t expand too much on this one. But feel free to go back and read about:
I think this technology makes me most optimistic about the human race. Mostly because of the conditions under which it happened. We were legit backs against the wall up against an unknown virus and some scientist created a vaccine for it in a weekend. In 1970, this virus would have just become something we lived with for the next 5-10 years. But now we have the potential to end this thing this year!
Of course the regulation process is a whole other reason to not have faith in humanity surviving existential threats, but that’s for a different day. We are optimistic right now!
We were tested and humanity responded. Yay!
2. Space technologies
If you are a pessimist, you are probably saying something like “space literally doesn’t matter, that is just a bunch of rich men Live Action Role Playing about saving us from destruction.” But what you may not understand is that in this next decade, we are about to see meaningful quality of life improvements for large chunks of humans on earth due to expanding into the space frontier. And in the decades beyond that some truly futuristic shit is about to happen…
Why? Well you have to start with the economics of space travel.
Thanks to SpaceX, it has never been cheaper to launch things into space.
The Space Shuttle entered service in 1981 and launched successfully 134 times. Each launch cost an inflation-adjusted $1.8 billion. The payload cost to low-Earth orbit (LEO) was $65,400/kg. Today’s workhorse launch vehicle, the Falcon 9, can send cargo to LEO for $2,600/kg. That is a staggering decrease in launch costs.
And the costs are going to get even cheaper…
SpaceX is talking about churning out Starships at a rate of one every 72 hours for a cost of $5 million each. Operating costs come down with a high flight rate, so Elon is figuring a $1.5-million fully burdened launch cost for 150 tons to LEO. That is $10/kg, more than 100 times cheaper than a Falcon 9 launch today.
What happens when you get launch costs really low? Industry!
Cheap travel to space means that there will be more business done in space.
But what business is done in space that matters to you?
Here are three examples of new industries that are about to be created by going to space.
Internet access to anyone who needs it. Regardless of where they live.
SpaceX is leading the way here with the deployment of Starlink: A series of satellites that will beam down Internet connection to people in rural areas. Specifically, the target market for Starlink is to serve the 3–4 percent hardest-to-reach customers.
For many people on Earth, Starlink is going to be a big deal.
As of this month, there are 955 Starlink satellites providing Internet access to thousands of users in a “better-than-nothing” beta test. The constellation size could go as high as 42,000 satellites. Internet speeds are already over 100 mbps down—they seem to be only somewhat attenuated by bad weather. For many rural customers, the service is indeed much better than nothing—better than any other available alternative. With more (and more advanced) satellites in operation, speeds could reach a gigabit.
So you are bringing a few rural people online. So what?
Woah. Check your privilege, bro. Some estimates say that HALF of the world’s population is not online right now because they do not have access to an Internet connection.
But for all us bougie folk out there, who don’t fit that category, don’t fret. Starlink will also help us as it will serve other niches like in-flight wifi on airplanes and Internet access for the crew on container ships. No more having that Adam Sandler movie drop out mid flight.
Manufacturing in Space
There are some things that we would like to manufacture on Earth put we can’t because they would collapse under their own weight during manufacturing. You know how you can eliminate that little gravitational quirk? Make it in space.
This post expands more on some of the applications, but here is a summary of a few lucrative use cases for manufacturing items in space:
Semiconductors
In the 90s, the Wake Shield Project utilized a 4 meter large manufacturing platform to leverage the ultra vacuum of space to manufacture thin film semiconductors with 10,000 times better quality than those made on Earth.
Fiber optic cables
Currently, transoceanic communications are conducted through undersea silica fiber optic cables which require repeaters that cost $1 million every 30-60 miles. ZBLAN, with a theoretical attenuation two orders of magnitude lower than silica fiber optic cable, could reduce by 15x the number of required repeaters, which are the most expensive component of undersea cables. Using ZBLAN on the current transatlantic undersea cable connecting Denmark to New Jersey could save over $100 million on repeaters! Unfortunately, pesky gravity-induced convection causes excess crystallization in all Earth-made ZBLAN, making it less performant than silica.
Carbon nanotubes
What’s two hundred times as strong as steel, lighter than paper, and electrically conductive? Large, single-walled carbon nanotubes! Unfortunately, no one has made a single walled carbon nanotube longer than 22 inches. Experimental research utilizing microgravity environments indicate that gravity-induced convection in manufacturing limits the effective length of producible carbon nanotubes. Short, single walled carbon nanotubes produced on Earth currently sell for up to $100,000 per kg, indicating commercial viability for long length carbon nanotubes made in space.
Human organs
Scientists have already printed a human knee meniscus aboard the ISS. The effort is part of a broader initiative to print organs in space, which would avoid the expensive and toxic scaffolding required to print organs on Earth.
How fucking cool is this? This is the future we all remember hearing about as kids! Hopefully companies like Varda can make in-space manufacturing a reality.
Asteroid mining
This one is far out and probably way way off in the distance, but it again is a good example of the types of industries that get created when we make new advances in technology.
Consider the following:
The street value of the materials on 16 Psyche back on Earth is $10 quintillion—even allowing for the inevitable hefty price slippage, space resource extraction could make a few trillionaires.
Space is not only cool, but it is an economic gold mine.
3. Robotics
Robots are coming. You are going to have some amazing robots that will do some tasks way better than we ever could.
Like grabbing a box in a factory:
Or delivering your food:
Or dancing:
That last video is so shocking to me. Truly mind boggling what progress they have already made on robotics.
All of these examples leave me optimistic about the progress we made this decade, but imagine where we will be after the next one…
2. Sea Shanties
According to Wikipedia:
A sea shanty is a type of work song that was once commonly sung to accompany rhythmical labor on board large merchant sailing vessels.
And it is also a genre of music I didn’t know I was so interested in until last week.
If you have no idea what I am talking about, here is a good video to catch you up to speed on the fun genre.
I have no idea why I like this genre so much, but perhaps my interest in sea shanties could be explained by the conditions we all find ourselves in right now.
But lets not try to psycho analyze it too deeply.
By the next edition of another krappy newsletter, I expect you all to know all the words to Wellerman.
In fact nothing would make me happier than you scream singing in my face “SOON MAY THE WELLERMAN COME TO BRING US SUGAR AND TEA AND RUM”
Additional required listening to get more acquainted to the sea shanty genre.
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